Dawn A. Clark, AIA, LEED AP, Architect

I’ve been on a perpetual road trip for a number of months – well, maybe more than a few years. Living across the planet in these cities – from Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, New York, London, Amsterdam, Miami, Seoul – there are interesting parallels and starkly constrasting differences. I’ve been to new developments and energized retail stores,  seen global power brands and creative local gathering places. The global trends in the development of this supercity network are powerful and fascinating, and visible on the streets.

I was exposed to the project 19.20.21 a few years ago at my first TED conference http://www.ted.com/ . The 19-20-21 Super City project by Richard Saul Wurman looks at the impact of urbanization on the environment and people. From the founder of the TED conference, this project seeks to organize and better understand population’s effect regarding urban and business planning and its impact on consumers around the world. Today’s global population clock is ticking at 6.9+ billion (the number changes every second) and the site provides an excellent overview of the population trends in the development of this network of supercities.

In looking at the basic development activities, especially in newly developing markets, there are still many infrastructure needs. The United Nations estimates that over 500 urban areas will have a population of more than a million people by 2015, compared with 328 such cities in 1996. Over the same period, the number of cities with a population of more than 5 million is projected to increase from 16 to 26.

Green infrastructure is one of the key elements of success — open space for people to connect with nature. I’ve seen a number of powerful developments over the past few years, like the redevelopment of the promenade/park along the Bund in Shanghai, to the Highline Park in New York City, to the Olympic Sculpture Park in Seattle.

highline park - new york city

These significant new green developments have created a ripple effect of successful development in surrounding properties. Great cities throughout history have always considered the development of green places as the heart of the city – the Champs Elysees of Paris, Central Park in New York City, Hyde and Green Parks in London.

Green developments are being created at all scales – urban fabrics to small buildings, and interior spaces — all enhancing and creating success for supercities of the future.

anthropologie's green wall - regent street, london

Dawn Clark

Earlier this summer, the IGDS (Intercontinental Group of Department Stores) held their annual high profile summit in New York.  This is the one conference that attracts the CEOs of the leading retail companies from all over the globe into one place, to converge, discuss and debate the state of the world in retail. There were over 300 delegates from 36 countries – including 54 CEOs from the retail store industry. Last year it was held in Moscow, and the year before in London – next year it will be Paris. I’ve had the good fortune of being invited to join this group for their annual gatherings for nearly 10 years, since meeting Werner Studer, Executive Director, in Dusseldorf at Euroshop.

During the past decade, these conferences have become the most influential meeting of the retail minds — like the United Nations of Retail. This year, the participation and profile of the retailers was the highest and most passionate ever, led by Wendy Liebmann’s opening, in setting the stage for a “less is more world.” 

Wendy Liebmann, Roger Farah, William Lauder, and Lew Frankfort

“…it’s worth noting that all the insanity around us not withstanding there will be a moment when this age will start to make sense: that brave new world will look very different than it does now…” From The Age of the Unthinkable, by Joshua Cooper Ramo

Wendy is the leader of WSL Strategic Retail,  a provocative and incredibly astute retail research and forecasting firm of her own making – as well as a dear and lovely friend. Wendy’s reach and research is global, and she doesn’t always say what retailers want or expect to hear, which explains her success – and why they are all listening to her insights. Wendy’s advice to this illustrious group – the 8 1/2 ways to win:

1. Restate worth

2. Think small

3. Reframe value

4. Embrace the internet

5. Innovate discounting

6. Reinvent service

7. Romance the brand

8. Seize the white space

8 1/2. Be bold or fail

All of these points come with a great deal of detail and research from Wendy’s work. Some key insights: 1. The recession is not over – 63% of consumers are spending less, and do not want to leverage any more 2. Affluent women shop at discounters every day 3. New shopping centers are emerging without department store anchors (Space 15 Twenty in LA) 4. New global department stores are emerging (Amazon, Tao Bao) 5. Retail service propositions are being re-invented with new technology (i-phones, airport vending machines).

After some lively debate with key leaders, we heard from Roger Farah (President of Polo Ralph Lauren), William Lauder (Executive Chairman of Estee Lauder), Lew Frankfort (Chairman & CEO of Coach), Steve Sadove (Chairman and CEO of Saks Fifth Avenue) and many other leaders from the UK, Turkey, Philippines, India, Chile, Italy, South Africa, Thailand, and France. Leaders highlighted product innovation, emotional connections to customers, connecting to culture and heritage, social media, mobile technology, in-store technology, and enriching the store environments. As Steve Sadove echoed another retail leader “don’t let a good recession go to waste.” 

My biggest take away? The passionate retailer will win, and there is no room for less than complete laser focus on value, your customer, environment, speed, invention, and continual re-invention. The perfect balance of magic and logic.

On a personal note, I hope you will excuse my recent absence from the blog — I’ve been immersed in my new role as vice president of design for Starbucks Coffee International, including a journey around the world, for our work in 52 countries. A few of our new store designs are posted here. Here’s to a brave new world of passionate retail.

15th Avenue Coffee & Tea (inspired by Starbucks)

It is a cold, windy and rainy day in Seattle. In looking for signs of spring, they are evident – there are tulips, sunbreaks, and cherry blossoms, and in being in our South Lake Union neighborhood, there is something bigger happening here – something that is about to transform this part of the city.

Amazon in moving in to our neighborhood – all 6,000+ of them. There are 11 buildings in various stages of completion, construction, and planning, developed by Vulcan Real Estate and Schnitzer West.  Today the first 3-building block is complete. It is the new heart, the epicenter of Amazon – and the most visible mark of that is now on the building. Amazon has started the beginning stage of their move in. The lounge furniture is in place, the grand fireplace is lit (a perfect day for that), the tables and lighting are in the cafe, and the doors are on the ceiling (Amazon likes their doors).

Amazon headquarters - South Lake Union, Seattle - NBBJ

In walking the neighborhood today, there are cranes, lifts, hardhats, orange vests - a bustling energy is everywhere. The larger vision here is for a newly enhanced urban environment between the downtown core and Lake Union. A desirable place for innovative businesses, urban professionals to live and to work, new restaurants, and retail – snowboards, home design, the REI flagship, and much yet to be realized. The streetcar running between downtown and Lake Union is about to increase it’s ridership.

A few years back when we designed our own headquarters along with the mixed use block at Alley 24 for Vulcan Development, this neighborhood was on the quiet fringe to the city. Some of the other developments that have been sitting vacant have recently announced new lease tenants. Still, there are many empty or under-utilized buildings – old warehouses, printing plants, manufacturing facilities, and even some single family homes in need of significant care or re-development.

Central plaza, Amazon headquarters - South Lake Union, Seattle - NBBJ

This is a great time to bring new energy into the city, and for Amazon to become part of the city again, with a great impact. We are in for a powerful transformation – a new epicenter in our rich and diverse city.

It’s definitely the first day of spring in our neighborhood.

For those strong national and international brands that leaned out their operations, shifted merchandising to address new consumer attitudes (demanding both value and luxury), and for those who held back expansion and renovation plans during the steep slide of the past 18 months, 2010 is looking brighter.

In working with leaders of brands across fashion, food, and service retail, I hear some common themes. Survivors feel stronger and fitter than they did going into the recession, and more confident about their ability to change and move into the future. They are more in tune and focused on the behavior and psyche of their customers. They have adopted new technologies for more streamlined operations, and are focusing investment on enhanced customer experience and competitive advantage.

15th Avenue Coffee & Tea - Starbucks local coffee shop concept

Store numbers and size are down – and look for this to be a long term trend. Retailers are expecting higher productivity for every store, and will move quickly to close an underperforming location. Larger stores are looking at smaller formats, small stores are looking at densifying offerings. All retailers are integrating online shopping with in-store experience – it’s not one or the other, it’s both, and they are seeking the best integration strategies in providing all options, seamlessly, in responding to new customer expectations.

Anthropologie - localized design, multilayered merchandising concepts

The bar has lowered on barriers to sale – if a customer doesn’t believe in the value of offering, if they are inconvenienced, if the offering doesn’t fit their requirements precisely, they are willing to wait – or find it elsewhere. Loyalty is down, and customer loyalty programs are being enriched to compensate.

The challenges over the past year have strengthened those that are willing to respond without hesitation, for those that understand that today and the future require continual adaptation, for those that take on these challenges as opportunities to grow stronger.

 

Market analysts report that China will be the world’s largest construction market by 2018, at $2.4 trillion – 19.1% of global construction output. The new report by Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics was issued last week in London.

The pace of development can still be seen and felt on the ground in the juxtaposition of old methods and new technology. Bamboo scaffolding spans between steel superstructures, and hand carts weave their way through tower crane supports. Construction sites turn into archaeological digs on development sites in the historic centers of ancient cultures, now the epicenters of modernizing cities.

Urbanization continues to fuel the development market, and business leaders here predict that trend continuing for the next 10 years. The scale of development is driving new innovations in all areas of the market as it continues to develop and stratify – in processes, materials, sustainability, and technology. We are seeing three major types of developers leading the market.

Mature developers drive efficient budgets and delivery processes for speed to market. Established proformas and programs require focus on blistering pace and lowering cost models. Keys to success for these developers are strong delivery and implementation disciplines, with tightly controlled costs.

Young entrepreneurial developers are thriving in new niche markets requiring great creativity and innovation strategies. Design quality is key for the success of these projects, along with unique programs and focused specialization.

Government sponsored developments invest time and money into highly visible and iconic projects. A symbolic connection to the culture, highest quality design and construction, and market leading firsts are key to the success of these projects.

The construction industry is going global – paying attention to the leading growth market is critical in understanding trends that will ultimately effect the more developed markets in the US and Europe – whether working in China or anywhere else on the planet.

 

Challenging times, continued re-tuning, and celebrating the few successes. There were many key insights to learn from this group of industry leaders, gathered in Dallas recently for the International Retail Design Conference. New strategies for value and environmentally conscious consumers and brands, localization and regionalism, global retail development in markets like China, India, Middle East, Latin America, experience based retail design, and community connections were discussed in depth. Here is what some of them had to say during our 3 days in Dallas together.

From Burt Tansky, CEO of Neiman Marcus

“Once you acquire a taste for luxury it remains, it doesn’t disappear, though it may be dormant for a while”

Also “Trends come and go, quality and great design are always in style”

Keys to NM brand “Improve, Innovate, Improvise”

“Luxury never changes” – as part of a dialog that Neiman Marcus is not trading down (though they are broadening some of the merchandise ranges, and experimenting with midday dash sales)

He did admit “I can’t get out of Costco for less than 200$” and his fondness for shopping at Costco.. 

New Neiman Marcus Store at The Bravern, Bellevue

John Mulliken, VP Store Planning and Development, Louis Vuitton

“Louis Vuitton never goes on sale” and “We must create the highest level of customer experience”

On keys to LV brand — “Craftsmanship, Innovation and Technology”

 

Others, overheard

“Don’t plan 2010 budgets on today’s (20-25%) reduced construction costs – material and labor costs will rise”

“There is nothing like a good recession to get you to run a better business”

 

“Do more with less” – repeated by many…

On budgets “no renovations, new stores, travel – significant restrictions on all capital expenditures

 

James Smith, Director of Store Design, Anthropologie, on winning the retailer of the year award 

Anthropologie has been doing “local” since the 1980’s – the key is operational ownership at the store – merchandising, design, and visual display –

“Empower the people in the stores”  

“No two stores are the same”

“Create a canvas to build on but allow the opportunity for empowering local teams to interpret and create”

What will the industry look like next spring? Who will be thriving? Luxury retail numbers continue to slide.  Meanwhile, look at new innovations like Uniqlo’s ramp up of their global expansion on current same store sales increases of 30%++  Look at their new +J Jill Sander line, released October 1st – timeless design and detailing at a fraction of the cost of the full line label. 

The reflective trends such as pride in thrift related to post-great-recession values and re-localization of big brand rollout stores are strong indicators of a long term shift in the market.  It is true that great design and quality are always in style, but at what cost?  The value proposition is a foundational key to the new consumer mindset and bottom line. There is a new found pride in thrift rather than bling. There is also an interesting alignment of these values with new developments in sustainability and environmental consciousness. Re-use, re-cycle, re-purpose – all good for the environment and the pocketbook.

 

   

Today, here in Dallas, leading global retailers, strategists and designers will convene for the annual IRDC conference – beginning with a keynote opening by Burt Tansky, President and CEO of Neiman Marcus.   

   

 Retail markets are over one year into plummeting sales figures, with recent results sliding along a slower decline. This cycle has caused a great deal of reflection and the development of new strategic directions for many industry leaders.   

   

I expect this creative and dynamic group will be brimming with new ideas and energy as they stride forward into the changed marketplace.  Change will be the key in moving forward, in regaining the lead, leading change. For three days, the best minds in the industry will share their insights and strategies.  

  

Successful leading retailers have change in their DNA – it’s how they live, and act every day. Retail must be a reflection of the moment, and on the pulse of the future to survive. 

  

Along with industry experts on international retail trends from around the globe, I will be presenting a talk on the state of retail in Asia and India. That’s just a little more than half of the population of the planet, and the engine of exponential change in retail culture. From luxury brands declining in Japan to new boutiques in India, to the Barbie flagship in Shanghai and global brands moving in to Vietnam, it’s a lot of ground to cover.  

  

The range of countries and cultures will provide us all with new strategies for the future of retail. I’ll keep you posted on what I hear and learn. 

  

 

 

Two days from today, Neiman Marcus celebrates the opening of their new store in Bellevue with a black tie gala, followed by opening of the new luxury collection of shops, restaurants and clubs at The Bravern.

The Seattle region has had an up and down relationship with designer brands in the past, yet the demographics continue to show that this market is ready. The Bravern is strategically located in close proximity to the wealthiest zip codes in this region. Microsoft has already moved in to the 2 office towers, and the luxury residential towers designed by NBBJ are nearing completion.  

Residential towers, under construction this summer

The shop collection has been carefully curated with a mix of both first to the market and well-loved Seattle area establishments expanding to the east-side – like Wild Ginger, the Southeast Asian inspired restaurant, whose Seattle flagship we designed in 2000, along with the new Bravern location opening over this weekend.

Wild Ginger's Seattle location, photo by Eduardo Calderon

Bellevue Square, the highly successful regional retail center is just a few blocks down the road, offering a broad range of retail, entertainment and restaurant venues like Nordstrom, Macy’s and more than 200 stores. We are about to discover if this market is ready for the next level up, in a limited edition - Hermes, Louis Vuitton, Piazza Sempione, Salvatore Ferragamo, Tory Burch, David Barton Gym, and more..

 

This week, while working across China on a series of new development projects, major green economic initiatives are front page news.  Back in the US, domestic development community struggles with financial market challenges, along with the cost/value assessment of new green building technologies and materials. China’s aggressive development expansion marches on with rapid advancement in sustainable building. The pace of this shift in China is fueled by government policy, subsidies and private business growth, based on continued domestic market development. 

Increasing focus on incentives for carbon emission reduction and green energy technologies are not just impacting the direction of industries in China, but rippling across the globe. With the help of government subsidies and a pricing strategy set at below cost, Suntech, China’s biggest solar panel manufacturer, has been gaining global market share while driving down costs. This year they are on track to overtake Germany’s largest supplier, and move into the second place spot globally, behind the US’s First Solar.

Sanlitun Village, Beijing

This week’s headline news quoted China’s director-general of climate change, for the first time giving a time frame for a decline in greenhouse gas emissions – 2050. Green initiatives and consumer preferences from smaller car engines to energy-saving light bulb technology are shifting major markets already.

The exponential shift created by these economic strategies are impacting our work today, and the direction of all of our industries tomorrow.

 

 This is not a new concept, but often overlooked in property development strategies, and in the organizational models that drive those development strategies.  As architects, we are experiencing fundamental shifts in practice – from climate change, major technology shifts, energy usage and costs, and the tools with which we practice. It is imperative that we develop deeper understanding of sustainable design principles, and as many jurisdictions and business leaders are instituting environmental, energy, and health related initiatives, we must raise the bar every day on our work. 

When I took on the study of the USGBC’s LEED accreditation program a few years ago, I didn’t expect this US developed system to be directly relevant to the projects I was working on around the world – in fact, at the time all of my work was out of the country. I was just interested in learning more about our approach to sustainable design strategies.  I was so amazed when the first comment from the chairman of a development company in Dubai after a major development strategy presentation was “it must be LEED certified”. 

The basic system is simple – good fundamental design principals that carefully balance and consider the use of energy and environmental resources, along with the health of the people we design for. For anyone who hasn’t gone onto the USGBC website a basic exploration is well worth the time, and to develop an understanding of the basic systems of values is one of the best ways to begin.

At TEDGlobal in Oxford a few weeks ago, I met with a number of brilliant industry changing business leaders who are developing new models – not just the buildings that represent their values, but a complete shift in re-connecting values to business and economic models.  Great innovations are in development and the opportunities to reflect those innovations into the built environment have never been more exciting. Here is an excerpt from the minister of the environment of Sweden on this concept, sustainable resilience – the concept behind great new innovations underway.

  

 

Resilience, for social-ecological systems, is related to

(a) the magnitude of shock that the system can absorb and remain

within a given state, (b) the degree to which the system is capable

of self-organization, and (c) the degree to which the system can

build capacity for learning and adaptation. Management can

destroy or build resilience, depending on how the social-ecological

system organizes itself in response to management actions.

More resilient social-ecological systems are able to absorb

larger shocks without changing in fundamental ways. When

massive transformation is inevitable, resilient systems contain the

components needed for renewal and reorganization. In other

words, they can cope, adapt, or reorganize without sacrificing the

provision of ecosystem services. Resilience is often associated with

 diversity – of species, of human opportunity, and of economicManagement that builds resilience can sustain 

options – that maintains and encourages both adaptation and

learning.

 

social-ecological systems in the face of surprise, unpredictability,

and complexity. Resilience-building management is flexible and

open to learning. It attends to slowly-changing, fundamental

variables that create memory, legacy, diversity, and the capacity to

innovate in both social and ecological components of the system. It

also conserves and nurtures the diverse elements that are necessary

to reorganize and adapt to novel, unexpected, and transformative

circumstances. Thus, it increases the range of surprises with which

a socio-economic system can cope.

A powerful concept to consider in both the design and business strategies we now have the opportunity to develop.

  

© 2012 CPE Blog Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha

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