Memorial Day Monday gave me a perfect first opportunity to visit the recently opened Modern Wing of The Art Institute of Chicago. How lucky are Chicagoans to live in a city with a rich civic awareness supported by its citizens who share that vision and benevolently contributed to the contribution of this new wing.

As incredible as is Renzo Piano’s design, the ability he has afforded all visitors to this masterpiece of contemporary museums so is the view from the galleries that face north in capturing a vision of architecture that spans from Michigan Avenue to the Lakefront. It is filled with gems such as One and Two Prudential Plaza, The Aon Center, the Smurfit-Stone Building all serving as a backdrop to Millennium Park and Jay Pritzker Pavilion.

Perhaps this is the final surprise that is not mentioned in the museum guide but certainly is the grandest “architectural gallery” of modern architecture to be found anywhere on the globe.

For this reason, people will continue to be drawn to live in Chicago and work in these architectural masterpieces. The future of commercial real estate in Chicago lies within the walls of these buildings as job creation will result in re-stimulation of Chicago’s real estate economy.

Hopefully, some members of the Olympic selection committee will see this spectacular “architectural gallery” and understand why this culturally diverse, world class city deserves their nod of approval in October.

 

As companies retrench across the commercial real estate industry and layoffs compound by the month, it is no surprise that some professionals are giving serious thought whether they should change careers and abandon the industry altogether. The commercial real estate sector undoubtedly faces a difficult road ahead, but we can be comforted in the fact that the industry as a whole will never become obsolete.

As real “tangible” property, brick-and-mortar assets are not going to go away as a major investment class, despite lower valuations. While land and building ownership may deleverage and change hands, with mortgage notes getting traded to new borrowers, the vast majority of commercial real estate will continue to have a very long asset life. Real property will continue to need to be re-tenanted, repaired and repositioned, offering long-term, sustainable career paths for both veteran professionals and those newer to the industry.

According to CREW Network’s recent research white paper, “Repositioning Your Real Estate Career to Succeed in an Era of Change,” new opportunities will emerge for those willing and able to reposition into specialties that will be in demand due to the changing economy:

· Frozen credit markets will lead to demand for expertise in securities, bankruptcy, distressed portfolio management, appraisers.

· Drop in consumer spending will lead to demand for retail strategies and design, and property leasing.
· Increasing government involvement and regulation will lead to a need for experts in compliance, as well as accountants and controllers.

· Global warming will lead to increases in jobs pertaining to sustainability issues.

· The residential real estate meltdown will create opportunities for those with expertise in multifamily leasing and development.

There’s no doubt about it. Challenging times lie ahead. But the industry will always be in need of dealmakers who are creative, innovative, and resourceful. Those who can capitalize on opportunities that exist in the market and reposition themselves for professional growth are the ones who will not only survive the downturn, but will emerge as winners for decades to come.

Brasil is the first country of reference in the BRIC group of fast growing developing economies - together with Russia, China, and India, hold over twenty-five percent of the world’s land and forty percent of the world’s population. Recently, I was in a meeting with a global luxury retailer who referred to Brasil as unaffected by the global recession. Surely, no country is completely unaffected – though in relative terms, Brasil is experiencing a powerful convergence of forces - political stability, optimism, natural resources and enlightened corporate leadership that is unprecedented.

  

Sao Paulo - the largest and wealthiest city in Brasil, from the rooftop of Hotel Unique

Yesterday, a panel of Brasilian retail developers at the ICSC conference in Las Vegas presented their case for the great opportunities that abound in this country that is emerging from a long period of economic and political turmoil. Though there are effects of the global economy in play, there has been so much catching up to do that it is hard to feel the recession in play.  

Carbon-neutral corporate headquarters of a 4 billion dollar beauty products company

From The Economist “In some ways Brazil is the steadiest of the BRICs. Unlike China and Russia it is a full-blooded democracy; unlike India it has no serious disputes with its neighbors. It is the only BRIC without a nuclear bomb.” The Heritage Foundations’s Economic Freedom Index, which measures factors such as protection of property rights and free trade, ranks Brazil (“moderately free”) above the other BRICs (“mostly unfree”).

 

  

Team exercise break at the manufacturing facility

I had the opportunity of working with some of these retail companies over the past year, and I met business leaders who spoke of their increased alignment with the liberal democratic leadership of the country. I developed the deepest respect for the level of commitment to enlightened and sustainable business practices that far exceed any I have experienced. 

 

Oscar Niemeyer's cultural center - modern master architect

The cultural richness is vibrant, creative, modern, yet deeply connected to nature – which I discovered in a great variety of built environments – from stores, workplaces, cultural centers, and hotels. Watch Brasil go forward, into the future. I think it will be fascinating, and illuminating for us all.

  

 

 

With next month’s U.S. Open back in nearby Bethpage, New York, it seems timely to consider how real estate, like golf, needs good support to create high performance over a career. Knowledgeable golfers understand the importance of Fanny Suneson, the caddie, who supported and guided Nick Faldo during his four major championships and who recently supported Henrik Stenson during his win at the Player’s Championship, golf’s “fifth major”. Additionally, “Freddie” Couples is known for his calm demeanor during stressful rounds and his clutch performances that have propelled him to captain of the American team during this fall’s Presidents Cup.

For those who do not play golf, or deal regularly with multifamily assets, the connections of “Fannie” and “Freddie” in both golf and the investment real estate industry may be missed. The competitive programs offered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have buoyed the multifamily asset class and have allowed multifamily buyers to purchase at still attractive yields. These programs offer up to 80% LTV, some interest-only financing, and sub 6% interest rates, which office, industrial and retail buyers are no longer able to achieve. We recently closed a $42 million, 436- unit apartment portfolio sale in suburban Hartford, Connecticut, using this debt platform and will seek similar financing options for four separate multi-family deals (1,561 total units) we will be brining to market at the end of this month.

The Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae platforms, especially the fixed rate programs of Fannie and the capital market ARM programs of Freddie will continue to play pivotal roles, guiding and stabilizing prices similar to impact their golfing counterparts have had on the game.

By Dr. Peter P. Kozel, Ph.D.
Senior Managing Director, Consulting Group
FirstService Williams   

    Just like the national economy, Manhattan office market fundamentals seemed to hit a wall as 2008 ended and 2009 began. The office availability rate for Manhattan as a whole–space that is being activity marketed for leasing–increased from 9.7% at the end of the third quarter 2008 to 12% at the end of the first quarter of 2009. In Midtown, the increase in the availability rate was even larger, rising from 10.4% to 13.3%. The availability rate in Midtown is now already higher than it was in mid-2003, the peak level during the previous cycle. Meanwhile the average asking rent is down 15% to 20% from the peak reached in early 2008.

    However, the actual effective rents, which include adjustments for tenant improvement allowances and the free rent period, are down by substantially more. The decline in rent levels has been more rapid and larger than the consensus was projecting only a year ago. Of course, the increase in rents from 2006 through the early months of 2008 was much larger than the basic supply/demand fundamentals seemed to justify.

    Everybody knows that the office property sector has suffered reversals during the past year, so the numbers just reviewed above shouldn’t be very surprising to anyone. What business or economic fundamentals, however, are driving this pervasive sense of weakness? Through March 2009, the preliminary numbers report that seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is down by 100 thousand from the peak level reached in early-2008.

    By comparison in the early 1990s, total employment fell by 350 thousand, about 10%, and the loss was close to 200 thousand in the 2000/01 recession. The Federal Reserve’s forecast, along with other projections, predict that national employment will continue to decline through 2009; even with that outlook, it doesn’t seem that the property markets should be performing so badly; but they are. Not only do the usual demand drivers seem to be less important this time, but the relative performance among the city’s major submarkets is not following the usual pattern.

    The declines in occupancy and rent levels during the current cycle occurred earlier and were more pronounced in the Midtown market than the Downtown and Midtown South markets versus previous cycles. Obviously, a more complex set of forces are at work in the markets today than one would find in a simple business cycle. Is it really that important that we attempt to find out what these new forces are?

    I think the answer has to be yes. The questions plaguing property owners, tenants and third party investors are how long this weakness will persist and how robust will the rebound be once the bottom has been achieved. If we can figure out the dynamics of the downturn, then we might be able to provide a reliable outlook. Going forward, we will investigate these issues and propose some answers for these important questions.

President RDM

In Real Estate no square foot is the same. When it comes to commercial property, everyone measures space differently, and depending on the measurement method used the same property will have different square footage calculations. RDM, the leading provider of building measurement solutions for over 25 years, recently has written a white paper demystifying the national building measurement methods.

It is vital for the commercial real estate industry to have accurate property measurements in order to ensure maximization of revenues, especially in the current uncertain market. RDM’s White Paper aims to provide the reader with valuable information on building measurement methods, such as BOMA, Modified BOMA, and REBNY, and where each is to be used and why. It discusses trends in distinct markets in the United States and the importance of having the appropriate property measurements portfolio-wide.

The more informed you are about the methods of building measurement the more aware you are of how to maximize your gains. 

 

 

Commissioning has long been an integral part of green building and the LEED green building rating system, and basic commissioning was built into LEED for New Construction as a prerequisite for certification. Commissioning is often misunderstood, especially among owners with no commissioning experience who often avoid the practice due to fears of initial high costs.  The commissioning process offers benefits to both building owners and occupants through improved building performance and heightened occupant satisfaction.

ASHRAE Guideline 0-2005 defines commissioning as a quality-focused process that focuses on verifying and documenting that the facility and its systems and assemblies are planned, designed, installed, tested, operated and maintained to meet the Owner’s Project Requirements (OPR).  And while many believe that commissioning is for new buildings only, it can be applied to existing buildings as well, as long as stabilized occupancy conditions are in place. LEED for Existing Buildings: Operations & Maintenance includes a credit focused on continuous commissioning, which incorporates monitoring and analysis of building performance data between the regularly performed operation and equipment reviews.

Any added cost of commissioning is justified by the energy savings that can be realized through corrective actions identified in the commissioning process. LEED specifically focuses on this aspect by having a credit specifically regarding implementation of no-cost and low-cost measures related to energy efficiency identified in the analysis. LEED for Existing Buildings: Operations & Maintenance also provides the option of performing an ASHRAE Level II Energy Audits as the first part of the retrocomissioning investigation component for existing buildings. Upfront commissioning and energy audits costs are recouped within only one to two years and helps building owners avoid unnecessary operating expenses, which is critical in this economic environment.

There are many comprehensive resources and guides to commissioning and retrocomissioning available online including A Retrocommissioning Guide for Building Owners, compiled by Portland Energy Conservation Incorporated and the EPA’s Energy STAR program.

Do you have experiences and specifics from commissioning or performing energy audits in your buildings? Let me know at mheisterkamp@usgbc.org.

 

 

  

Attending events over the last decade organized by the IGDS – Intercontinental Group of Department Stores, the Zurich based organization of more than 30 flagship stores worldwide, has always been an illuminating global snapshot of the pulse of leading retailers across the globe. I’ve met with them in Dusseldorf, Hong Kong, London, and Manila. The summit last week in Moscow at the historic GUM department store (shopping center) adjacent to Red Square included presentations by 14 leading CEOs. 

  

 

 

  

 

Through the lens of the financial crisis and falling revenues, forward thinking leaders at the summit were focused on two important issues – engaging their customers emotionally, and the forces of online shopping. Understanding the impact of the digital universe on shopping behavior is considered critical for success and survival.

 

 

One of the most compelling talks was Andy Rubin, the CEO of Pentland Brands – UK, “Chief Emotional Officer”, who focused on the importance of truly engaging the consumer as the key to success. His take on major trends:

 

Economy – the downturn is not over, and may go on for years – plan for worse.

 

 

Polarization – growth in value and steady in luxury – most challenges are in the middle of the market.

 

 

GUM Department Store, Moscow

Internet Wave 3 – the new internet is mobile, unlimited, free, and accessible from anywhere. New websites take advantage of this new kind of mobility and access, such as asos.com, for younger consumer, or net-a-porter.com that offers premium service, free delivery anywhere, free returns, etc.  (I would add sites like closetcouture.com and gilt.com as new models in fashion)

 

 

Sustainability – environmental responsibility and ethical sourcing are forces of change that will fundamentally change retailers on a global scale.

 

 

Mr. Rubin believes that brands love flagships. Why?

 

 

Flagships tell stories 

If consumers identify with the story they identify with the product. Mr Rubin’s brand stories – Speedo on Michael Phelps winning 8 gold medals, Rene Lacoste creating the crocodile legend, Berghaus with Leo Houlding’s base jumping para-alpinist adventures.  His flagship stores allow him to fully tell the story through images, video, events, and activities.  

 

 

Flagships are brand laboratories 

Flagships are labs for new product development and testing, for bold cross-merchandising.  A flagship allows for consumer insight – regular thorough feedback from consumers is essential.  A flagship is a place to build customer service – qualified product experts and service are critical. It is particularly important in specialized gear stores – choosing a wrong sized suit in a Berghaus store can cost you a life. New brand propositions, brand educations, ethical messages, community connections, media venues, event stages, parties, celebrities – flagships are entertainment venues.

 Other talks included Mr. Alberto Alessi, on Italian design factories and the market niche that they occupy – not quite mass production, very high quality design and manufacturing, producing ‘art multiples’, and the importance of poetic and spiritual value of things in addition to functional value (relative to the history of craft).

 

 

Mr. Allan Namchaisiri, President of ZEN lifestyle store in Thailand. ZEN is an 8 story hybrid containing a wide range – from very well organized and top of the line shopping experience, to cafes, restaurants, to spas, medical offices, childcare, clubs, movies. On Friday, while presenting at the conference, he was missing a DJ night that sold 4000 tickets to the club at the top of ZEN store… he believes that a successful store is a place where people come for everything – entertainment, socializing, medical treatment, good music, food, and, of course, shopping!

 

In general many presenters talked about the importance of entertainment and events (cultural, parties, special causes) taking place in the flagship stores as a way of emotionally engaging the consumers and building customer support. Flagship stores more and more become a stage for brand, showing a brand’s history and personality for customers to experience.

 

 

Mr. Michael Gould, CEO of Bloomingdales talked about identity as primary importance for their multiplying stores. The use of characteristic black trim and black & white floor patterns are critical to the identity of the stores in their various locations and sizes. It allows a distinctive connection between a much smaller downtown Soho store and a much larger 59th street location. Bloomingdales also is making a shift toward more upscale merchandise.

 

Mr. Teymuraz Guguberidze, CEO of GUM thinks differently – he believes that mixing the upscale brands such as Chanel or Hermes with more budget brands such as Zara or Sasch is a key to the most important and biggest luxury – freedomfreedom of choice (today you may want to go to Chanel and tomorrow to Zara).

 

  

Given the shopping activity at GUM in the morning of a work day – he seems to have it right…

  

Summit report contributions by Anya Bokov, Director – Moscow Office, NBBJ 

 

It is vital for the Real Estate industry to take advantage of all the tools available in the market. Especially those free of charge.

All the rage today is this program Twitter. Twitter is a social networking site that allows you to communicate to large groups of people instantly using your PC or text messaging. The website’s original purpose is to provide “a service for friends, family, and co–workers to communicate and stay connected through the exchange of quick, frequent answers to one simple question: What are you doing?”

With Twitter’s exponential growth reaching 131% in March, no wonder nearly every industry is on Twitter, from governmental agencies such as the SEC keeping people informed about its actions, to entertainment industry with celebrities including Oprah and Ashton using it as a platform for brand exposure and keeping in touch with their fans. Seeing the revolutionary approach to real-time news and the benefits that come with it, businesses, small or large, have picked up on this great tool.

But is it good for the Real Estate Industry? The answer is YES. Imagine if you can broadcast your information quickly, about a vacancy, a listing, or some special intel that you just received and want to get out quickly to your entire team. You don’t have to go to voicemail or separate emails in order to access your network. With Twitter all you need is one short message that you can distribute to everyone at once. You can use Twitter for your colleagues, business associates, and prospective tenants that you are approaching. The extensiveness of the network, and the ability to reach out to it instantly is a great way to stay connected. People want news immediately, and what better way to supply it to them than with Twitter.

Some Real Estate businesses have picked up on this. Coldwell Bankers, Colliers International, and CBRE to name a few have created accounts to stay on top of the changing trends in society. The exposure theses businesses get on Twitter is unmatchable as every person following their account is updated with posts in real-time. Given that Twitter works with Blackberries and iPhones adds onto to the marketing revolution.

Twitter is a free and easy to use solution to stay connected to your network at all times. It may be the future of marketing and networking, and given real estate industry’s commitment to both, it is important to take advantage of the opportunity.

© 2012 CPE Blog Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha

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